- Social distancing of pandemic proportions? Trends in trust and network reliance in the pre-vax pandemic (Working Paper)
- Drivers of evacuation: A multi-level study of social capital and mobility during Covid-19 (Working Paper)
- Information trust falls: The role of social networks and information during the Covid-19 pandemic among suburbanites (The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences)
- Covid-19 to go? The role of disasters and evacuation in the Covid-19 pandemic (Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions)
- Social capital’s impact on Covid-19 outcomes at local levels (Scientific Reports)
- Bowling alone or distancing together? The role of social capital in excess death rates from Covid-19 (Social Science & Medicine)
- Protective policies for all? An analysis of Covid-19 deaths and protective policies among low, medium, and high vulnerability groups (Disasters)
- Social capital and the Covid-19 pandemic: A preliminary qualitative analysis (Natural Hazards Center Quick Response Grant Report Series)
- Social ties, quarantine policy, and the spread of Covid-19 (Natural Hazards Center Quick Response Grant Report Series)
Social distancing of pandemic proportions?
Trends in trust and network reliance in the pre-vax pandemic
Working Paper
Over the past two decades, researchers have advanced our understanding of how social capital operates in times of crisis. These studies have found that deep reservoirs of social capital can fuel resilience to a host of hazards. However, the pandemic has challenged social norms in many communities – from limiting gatherings, upending childcare and school routines, to forcing the workforce online. We attempt to understand the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on social capital over time. We draw on survey responses (N = 534) and interviews (N = 118) from two separate waves: June and July of 2020 and January and February of 2021. Our results indicate a nuanced understanding of the role of close, tight-knit ties in the COVID-19 pandemic, prevacciniation. Individuals were more likely to report relying on their network for assistance and support in 2021, compared to 2020; however, we also observed a decline in trust in close ties for Covid-19-related information in 2021, compared to 2020. Further, there was a statistically significant increase in individuals’ trust in elected and appointed government officials in 2021, compared to 2020. The theoretical implications of our research suggest that social ties become increasingly important for social and emotional support and assistance as time goes on, especially in uncertain conditions; however, individuals were less likely to rely on these networks for information. Further, these findings suggest the importance of managing health information in a global pandemic from the federal level.
Over the past two decades, researchers have advanced our understanding of how social capital operates in times of crisis. These studies have found that deep reservoirs of social capital can fuel resilience to a host of hazards. However, the pandemic has challenged social norms in many communities – from limiting gatherings, upending childcare and school routines, to forcing the workforce online. We attempt to understand the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on social capital over time. We draw on survey responses (N = 534) and interviews (N = 118) from two separate waves: June and July of 2020 and January and February of 2021. Our results indicate a nuanced understanding of the role of close, tight-knit ties in the COVID-19 pandemic, prevacciniation. Individuals were more likely to report relying on their network for assistance and support in 2021, compared to 2020; however, we also observed a decline in trust in close ties for Covid-19-related information in 2021, compared to 2020. Further, there was a statistically significant increase in individuals’ trust in elected and appointed government officials in 2021, compared to 2020. The theoretical implications of our research suggest that social ties become increasingly important for social and emotional support and assistance as time goes on, especially in uncertain conditions; however, individuals were less likely to rely on these networks for information. Further, these findings suggest the importance of managing health information in a global pandemic from the federal level.
Collaborators: Daniel Aldrich, PhD (Northeastern University), Summer Marion, PhD (Bentley University)
DRIVERS OF EVACUATION:
A MULTI-LEVEL STUDY OF SOCIAL CAPITAL AND MOBILITY DURING THE MARSHALL FIRES
Working Paper
Abstract
The 30-31st December 2021 Marshall Fires, propelled by 100 mph winds and dry conditions, took at least two lives, injured a dozen people, and destroyed nearly 1100 homes and businesses in the suburban towns of Louisville and Superior in Boulder County, Colorado (Phillips 2022). Early confusion among emergency personnel and the rapid spread of the fire meant that many residents in neighborhoods like Sagamore and Rock Creek had to flee without time to gather belongings or notify loved ones. Some survivors reported evacuating because of reverse 911 calls, sirens and bullhorn announcements from first responders in fire engines, while others have said that they only left because of the frantic knocking from a concerned neighbor or the smell of smoke near their property (Brown and Paul 2022). As Superior and Louisville residents moved to leave, their destinations may not have been clear even to them. For example, while local cities designated a number of buildings as emergency evacuation shelters during the fires, initial reports indicate very low use of these facilities. In public interviews some evacuees reported relocating to the homes of former spouses, family members, and friends. Others moved to nearby hotels or began leases on new apartments in the area.
What prompted evacuations and how survivors decided where to go after that initial choice remain important and unanswered questions. We propose a multi-level, mixed-methods approach to study what factors prompted rapid (versus late) evacuation and what factors influenced decisions on where to flee and then stay with a special focus on social capital. A growing body of research has underscored the role played by bonding, bridging, and linking social ties during periods of crisis, and this project will move quickly to capture ephemeral qualitative and quantitative data about that resource and others that can alter decision making about evacuation. Rather than relying on a single method or retrospective questions of survivors, we will draw from a variety of platforms, including Facebook’s Data for Good, aggregated mobility data from Cuebiq, pre-fire estimates of social capital based on the SoCI (social capital index), Zoom interviews with at least two dozen survivors, and SurveyMonkey based online surveys of residents. Our team builds on extensive large-N-, survey-, and interview-based studies of evacuations from past crises in different nations, including the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant meltdowns, and the 2018 Iburi Earthquake in Japan, and Hurricanes Irma, Maria, and Harvey in North America.
Abstract
The 30-31st December 2021 Marshall Fires, propelled by 100 mph winds and dry conditions, took at least two lives, injured a dozen people, and destroyed nearly 1100 homes and businesses in the suburban towns of Louisville and Superior in Boulder County, Colorado (Phillips 2022). Early confusion among emergency personnel and the rapid spread of the fire meant that many residents in neighborhoods like Sagamore and Rock Creek had to flee without time to gather belongings or notify loved ones. Some survivors reported evacuating because of reverse 911 calls, sirens and bullhorn announcements from first responders in fire engines, while others have said that they only left because of the frantic knocking from a concerned neighbor or the smell of smoke near their property (Brown and Paul 2022). As Superior and Louisville residents moved to leave, their destinations may not have been clear even to them. For example, while local cities designated a number of buildings as emergency evacuation shelters during the fires, initial reports indicate very low use of these facilities. In public interviews some evacuees reported relocating to the homes of former spouses, family members, and friends. Others moved to nearby hotels or began leases on new apartments in the area.
What prompted evacuations and how survivors decided where to go after that initial choice remain important and unanswered questions. We propose a multi-level, mixed-methods approach to study what factors prompted rapid (versus late) evacuation and what factors influenced decisions on where to flee and then stay with a special focus on social capital. A growing body of research has underscored the role played by bonding, bridging, and linking social ties during periods of crisis, and this project will move quickly to capture ephemeral qualitative and quantitative data about that resource and others that can alter decision making about evacuation. Rather than relying on a single method or retrospective questions of survivors, we will draw from a variety of platforms, including Facebook’s Data for Good, aggregated mobility data from Cuebiq, pre-fire estimates of social capital based on the SoCI (social capital index), Zoom interviews with at least two dozen survivors, and SurveyMonkey based online surveys of residents. Our team builds on extensive large-N-, survey-, and interview-based studies of evacuations from past crises in different nations, including the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant meltdowns, and the 2018 Iburi Earthquake in Japan, and Hurricanes Irma, Maria, and Harvey in North America.
Collaborators: Daniel Aldrich, PhD (Northeastern University), Timothy Fraser, PhD (Cornell University), Takahiro Yabe, PhD (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
INFORMATION TRUST FALLS:
THE ROLE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS AND INFORMATION DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AMONG SUBURBANITES
Abstract
Public cooperation with health experts and authorities plays a critical role in curbing the spread of disease during outbreaks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Through data collected using mixed-methods in May and June of 2020, we investigate the influence of information from horizontal and vertical social ties on the likelihood that individuals would practice safe and healthy behavior. We look at actions such as staying home, wearing personal protective equipment, and increased handwashing in two northeastern U.S. metro areas during the early months of the pandemic. Focusing on suburbanites with above-average income and education, and controlling for factors thought critical in previous studies - including political party affiliation and demographic characteristics - our analysis of more than 800 survey responses and more than 60 interviews finds that information embedded in tight-knit horizontal ties and vertical ties to entities of power correlate significantly with behaviors designed to curb the spread of the virus.
Public cooperation with health experts and authorities plays a critical role in curbing the spread of disease during outbreaks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Through data collected using mixed-methods in May and June of 2020, we investigate the influence of information from horizontal and vertical social ties on the likelihood that individuals would practice safe and healthy behavior. We look at actions such as staying home, wearing personal protective equipment, and increased handwashing in two northeastern U.S. metro areas during the early months of the pandemic. Focusing on suburbanites with above-average income and education, and controlling for factors thought critical in previous studies - including political party affiliation and demographic characteristics - our analysis of more than 800 survey responses and more than 60 interviews finds that information embedded in tight-knit horizontal ties and vertical ties to entities of power correlate significantly with behaviors designed to curb the spread of the virus.
Citation: Page-Tan, C., Marion, S., & Aldrich, D. P. (2022). Information Trust Falls: The Role of Social Networks and Information During the COVID-19 Pandemic Among Suburbanites. RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, 8(8), 32-51. https://doi.org/10.7758/RSF.2022.8.8.02
COVID-19 TO GO?
THE ROLE OF DISASTERS AND EVACUATION IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Abstract
Since the start of the pandemic, some U.S. communities have faced record storms, fires, and floods. Communities have confronted the increased challenge of curbing the spread of COVID-19 amid evacuation orders and short-term displacement that result from hazards. This raises the question of whether disasters, evacuations, and displacements have resulted in above-average infection rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the relationship between disaster intensity, sheltering-in-place, evacuation-related mobility, and contagion following Hurricane Zeta in Southeastern Louisiana and The Wildfires in Napa and Sonoma Counties, California, known as the Glass Fire. We draw on data from the county subdivision level and mapped and aggregated tallies of Facebook user movement from the Facebook Data for Good program’s GeoInsights Portal. We test the effects of disasters, evacuation, and shelter-in-place behaviors on COVID-19 spread using panel data models, matched panel models, and synthetic control experiments. Our findings suggest associations between disaster intensity and higher rates of COVID-19 cases. We also find that while sheltering-in-place led to decreases in the spread of COVID-19, evacuation-related mobility did not result in our hypothesized surge of cases immediately after the disasters. The findings from this study aim to inform policymakers and scholars about how to better respond to disasters during multi-crisis events, such as offering hotel accommodations to evacuees instead of mass shelters and updating intake and accommodation procedures at shelters, such as administration temperature screenings, offering hand sanitizing stations, and providing isolated areas for ill evacuees.
Since the start of the pandemic, some U.S. communities have faced record storms, fires, and floods. Communities have confronted the increased challenge of curbing the spread of COVID-19 amid evacuation orders and short-term displacement that result from hazards. This raises the question of whether disasters, evacuations, and displacements have resulted in above-average infection rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the relationship between disaster intensity, sheltering-in-place, evacuation-related mobility, and contagion following Hurricane Zeta in Southeastern Louisiana and The Wildfires in Napa and Sonoma Counties, California, known as the Glass Fire. We draw on data from the county subdivision level and mapped and aggregated tallies of Facebook user movement from the Facebook Data for Good program’s GeoInsights Portal. We test the effects of disasters, evacuation, and shelter-in-place behaviors on COVID-19 spread using panel data models, matched panel models, and synthetic control experiments. Our findings suggest associations between disaster intensity and higher rates of COVID-19 cases. We also find that while sheltering-in-place led to decreases in the spread of COVID-19, evacuation-related mobility did not result in our hypothesized surge of cases immediately after the disasters. The findings from this study aim to inform policymakers and scholars about how to better respond to disasters during multi-crisis events, such as offering hotel accommodations to evacuees instead of mass shelters and updating intake and accommodation procedures at shelters, such as administration temperature screenings, offering hand sanitizing stations, and providing isolated areas for ill evacuees.
Citation: Page-Tan, C. and Fraser, T. (2022) Covid-19 to go? The role of disasters and evacuation in the Covid-19 pandemic. Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102471
SOCIAL CAPITAL'S IMPACT ON COVID-19 OUTCOMES AT LOCAL LEVELS
Abstract
Over the past thirty years, disaster scholars have highlighted that communities with stronger social infrastructure—including social ties that enable trust, mutual aid, and collective action—tend to respond to and recover better from crises. However, comprehensive measurements of social capital across communities have been rare. This study adapts Kyne and Aldrich’s (Risk Hazards Crisis Public Policy 11, 61–86, 2020) county-level social capital index to the census-tract level, generating social capital indices from 2011 to 2018 at the census-tract, zipcode, and county subdivision levels. To demonstrate their usefulness to disaster planners, public health experts, and local officials, we paired these with the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index to predict the incidence of COVID-19 in case studies in Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Illinois, and New York City. We found that social capital predicted 41–49% of the variation in COVID-19 outbreaks, and up to 90% with controls in specific cases, highlighting its power as diagnostic and predictive tools for combating the spread of COVID.
Over the past thirty years, disaster scholars have highlighted that communities with stronger social infrastructure—including social ties that enable trust, mutual aid, and collective action—tend to respond to and recover better from crises. However, comprehensive measurements of social capital across communities have been rare. This study adapts Kyne and Aldrich’s (Risk Hazards Crisis Public Policy 11, 61–86, 2020) county-level social capital index to the census-tract level, generating social capital indices from 2011 to 2018 at the census-tract, zipcode, and county subdivision levels. To demonstrate their usefulness to disaster planners, public health experts, and local officials, we paired these with the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index to predict the incidence of COVID-19 in case studies in Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Illinois, and New York City. We found that social capital predicted 41–49% of the variation in COVID-19 outbreaks, and up to 90% with controls in specific cases, highlighting its power as diagnostic and predictive tools for combating the spread of COVID.
Citation: Fraser, T., Page-Tan, C., & Aldrich, D. P. (2022). Social capital's impact on COVID-19 outcomes at local levels. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 6566. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-10275-z
BOWLING ALONE OR DISTANCING TOGETHER?
THE ROLE OF SOCIAL CAPITAL IN EXCESS DEATH RATES FROM COVID19
Abstract
Much attention on the spread and impact of the ongoing pandemic has focused on institutional factors such as government capacity along with population-level characteristics such as race, income, and age. This paper draws on a growing body of evidence that bonding, bridging, and linking social capital - the horizontal and vertical ties that bind societies together - impact public health to explain why some U.S. counties have seen higher (or lower) excess deaths during the COVID19 pandemic than others. Drawing on county-level reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) since February 2020, we calculated the number of excess deaths per county compared to 2018. Starting with a panel dataset of county observations over time, we used coarsened exact matching to create smaller but more similar sets of communities that differ primarily in social capital. Controlling for several factors, including politics and governance, health care quality, and demographic characteristics, we find that bonding and linking social capital reduce the toll of COVID-19 on communities. Public health officials and community organizations should prioritize building and maintaining strong social ties and trust in government to help combat the pandemic.
Much attention on the spread and impact of the ongoing pandemic has focused on institutional factors such as government capacity along with population-level characteristics such as race, income, and age. This paper draws on a growing body of evidence that bonding, bridging, and linking social capital - the horizontal and vertical ties that bind societies together - impact public health to explain why some U.S. counties have seen higher (or lower) excess deaths during the COVID19 pandemic than others. Drawing on county-level reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) since February 2020, we calculated the number of excess deaths per county compared to 2018. Starting with a panel dataset of county observations over time, we used coarsened exact matching to create smaller but more similar sets of communities that differ primarily in social capital. Controlling for several factors, including politics and governance, health care quality, and demographic characteristics, we find that bonding and linking social capital reduce the toll of COVID-19 on communities. Public health officials and community organizations should prioritize building and maintaining strong social ties and trust in government to help combat the pandemic.
Citation: Fraser, T., Aldrich, D. P., & Page-Tan, C. (2021). Bowling alone or distancing together? The role of social capital in excess death rates from COVID19. Social Science & Medicine, 114241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114241
PROTECTIVE POLICIES FOR ALL?
AN ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 DEATHS AND PROTECTIVE POLICIES AMONG LOW, MEDIUM, AND HIGH VULNERABILITY GROUPS
Abstract
Protective policies have been unequally and inconsistently applied in the United States throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. This study investigates the relationship between state and local policies and Covid-19 deaths, combining three datasets: the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Social Vulnerability Index; local laws and regulations from the COVID Analysis and Mapping of Policies (AMP) database; and Covid-19 deaths by county reported by The New York Times. It examines, using propensity score matching, local policies and regulations as treatments during the crisis, and assesses how, inter alia, face mask requirements, gathering restrictions, stay-at-home orders, and social distancing mandates enacted at the county level altered Covid-19 deaths. The results indicate that the first three variables reduced average Covid-19 deaths in high-vulnerability communities. Despite clear gaps in federal policy guidance and coordinated policies, some efforts led by local and state governments promoted safer behaviour and lessened the impact of Covid-19 in communities, especially those with higher social vulnerability rates.
Protective policies have been unequally and inconsistently applied in the United States throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. This study investigates the relationship between state and local policies and Covid-19 deaths, combining three datasets: the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Social Vulnerability Index; local laws and regulations from the COVID Analysis and Mapping of Policies (AMP) database; and Covid-19 deaths by county reported by The New York Times. It examines, using propensity score matching, local policies and regulations as treatments during the crisis, and assesses how, inter alia, face mask requirements, gathering restrictions, stay-at-home orders, and social distancing mandates enacted at the county level altered Covid-19 deaths. The results indicate that the first three variables reduced average Covid-19 deaths in high-vulnerability communities. Despite clear gaps in federal policy guidance and coordinated policies, some efforts led by local and state governments promoted safer behaviour and lessened the impact of Covid-19 in communities, especially those with higher social vulnerability rates.
Citation: Page-Tan, C. & Corbin, T. B. (2021). Protective policies for all? An analysis of Covid-19 deaths and protective policies among low-, medium-, and high-vulnerability groups. Disasters, 45(S1), S119-S145. https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.1252
SOCIAL CAPITAL AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC:
A PRELIMINARY QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
Abstract
This research investigates the relationship between social capital and adoption of safe nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI), such as mask-wearing and avoiding public places during COVID-19 nearly one year into the pandemic. This report details preliminary findings from a follow-up study consisting of a survey of and interviews with individuals from Boston and New York City. The first wave study was conducted in May and June 2020. This second wave study was conducted in January and February of 2021. Findings from this second wave advance our understanding of the importance of social contexts on safe, hygienic, and socially conscious behaviors in the later months of the pandemic. The primary questions driving this study, and informing the preliminary findings reported here, include: (a) Does an individual's social capital influence their response to NPIs implemented during the pandemic? and (b) How has the pandemic itself influenced levels of social capital present in the communities we study? Our findings point to four themes among those we interviewed (N=64): (a) failure to form new social ties; (b) severing bonding ties over divergent behavior; (c) loss of bridging ties (e.g., with professional colleagues); and (d) virtual social fatigue. Future analysis will further explore these findings and triangulate them with our first wave results.
This research investigates the relationship between social capital and adoption of safe nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI), such as mask-wearing and avoiding public places during COVID-19 nearly one year into the pandemic. This report details preliminary findings from a follow-up study consisting of a survey of and interviews with individuals from Boston and New York City. The first wave study was conducted in May and June 2020. This second wave study was conducted in January and February of 2021. Findings from this second wave advance our understanding of the importance of social contexts on safe, hygienic, and socially conscious behaviors in the later months of the pandemic. The primary questions driving this study, and informing the preliminary findings reported here, include: (a) Does an individual's social capital influence their response to NPIs implemented during the pandemic? and (b) How has the pandemic itself influenced levels of social capital present in the communities we study? Our findings point to four themes among those we interviewed (N=64): (a) failure to form new social ties; (b) severing bonding ties over divergent behavior; (c) loss of bridging ties (e.g., with professional colleagues); and (d) virtual social fatigue. Future analysis will further explore these findings and triangulate them with our first wave results.
Citation: Page-Tan, C., Marion, S., Aldrich, D. P., Holck, D., Liu, M., Pimentel, L., & Shejwal, P. (2021) Social Capital and the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Qualitative Analysis. Natural Hazards Center Quick Response Grant Report Series, 335. Boulder, CO: Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado Boulder. https://hazards.colorado.edu/quick-response-report/social-capital-and-the-covid-19-pandemic
SOCIAL TIES, QUARANTINE POLICY, AND THE SPREAD OF COVID19
Abstract
COVID-19 remains a major challenge for nations around the world. Our research uses quantitative methods to try to understand the role of mobility and social networks in COVID-19 related outcomes, especially behaviors such as social distancing, voluntarism, and altruism. Through a survey of more than 800 New York City and Boston residents we seek to correlate social infrastructure (trust, bonding, bridging, and linking ties) and decisions to stay at home (or continue with normal, pre-COVID-19 times) with changes in behavior while controlling for demographic, political, and other factors. While our data analysis is still preliminary, and we have only a few qualitative interviews with which to illuminate our quantitative findings, it is clear that networks, trust, and cohesion continue to have an impact during the ongoing pandemic.
COVID-19 remains a major challenge for nations around the world. Our research uses quantitative methods to try to understand the role of mobility and social networks in COVID-19 related outcomes, especially behaviors such as social distancing, voluntarism, and altruism. Through a survey of more than 800 New York City and Boston residents we seek to correlate social infrastructure (trust, bonding, bridging, and linking ties) and decisions to stay at home (or continue with normal, pre-COVID-19 times) with changes in behavior while controlling for demographic, political, and other factors. While our data analysis is still preliminary, and we have only a few qualitative interviews with which to illuminate our quantitative findings, it is clear that networks, trust, and cohesion continue to have an impact during the ongoing pandemic.
Citation: Aldrich, D.P., Fraser, T., Lee, J., Page-Tan, C., and Yoshida, T. (2020) Social ties, quarantine policy, and the spread of COVID19. Natural Hazards Center Quick Response Grant Report Series, 335. Boulder, CO: Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado Boulder. https://hazards.colorado.edu/quick-response-report/social-ties-quarantine-policy-and-the-spread-of-covid-1